Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.311675 0.353539 0.398973 0.451953 0.512050 0.578123 0.656304
2025-10-05 0.256365 0.313202 0.379587 0.462887 0.564697 0.685190 0.838810
2025-10-12 0.208884 0.272797 0.352542 0.459442 0.599191 0.775970 1.017092
2025-10-19 0.175240 0.243373 0.333720 0.462457 0.641562 0.882526 1.232442
2025-10-26 0.151415 0.222631 0.322558 0.473264 0.695441 1.012015 1.499414
2025-11-02 0.124936 0.193661 0.295274 0.456810 0.708114 1.085813 1.699852
2025-11-09 0.102330 0.166607 0.266384 0.432984 0.705499 1.135989 1.872397
2025-11-16 0.087240 0.148738 0.248662 0.423383 0.722991 1.218986 2.109148
2025-11-23 0.074707 0.132998 0.231860 0.412382 0.735981 1.295851 2.347128
2025-11-30 0.067600 0.125387 0.227464 0.421699 0.784888 1.440197 2.724879
2025-12-07 0.058098 0.111984 0.210875 0.406463 0.786970 1.501151 2.959197
2025-12-14 0.051153 0.102273 0.199554 0.399179 0.802498 1.588525 3.256636
2025-12-21 0.044799 0.092960 0.188055 0.390649 0.816020 1.677424 3.579178
2025-12-28 0.041501 0.089288 0.187095 0.403221 0.874350 1.864781 4.137447
2026-01-04 0.037339 0.083170 0.180257 0.402453 0.904588 1.998844 4.604770
2026-01-11 0.034125 0.078605 0.176026 0.406696 0.946522 2.164682 5.172276
2026-01-18 0.031766 0.075591 0.174734 0.417360 1.004777 2.376048 5.882667
2026-01-25 0.028003 0.068730 0.163741 0.403676 1.003663 2.450264 6.275492
2026-02-01 0.024314 0.061478 0.150774 0.383193 0.982749 2.473976 6.546537
2026-02-08 0.021814 0.056780 0.143257 0.375087 0.991605 2.572420 7.028344
2026-02-15 0.019543 0.052318 0.135672 0.365616 0.995422 2.658679 7.493075
2026-02-22 0.018396 0.050631 0.134905 0.374058 1.048470 2.882303 8.376949
2026-03-01 0.016388 0.046308 0.126607 0.360692 1.039386 2.936875 8.789256